Journal

Into the Fray, But Will This Help His Investments?

Young Bulgarians dive to retrieve a crucifix cast by priest into the icy water of a lake in an old ritual marking the feast of Epiphany Monday, Jan. 6, 2003 in Sofia, Bulgaria. By tradition, a crucifix is cast into the waters of a lake or river and it is believed that the person who retrieves it will be freed from evil spirits that might have troubled him. (AP Photo/Dimitar Deinov)

Fortunately, I have not had to resort to such measures.

This is a trading journal and running commentary on what I have done in the market.  I have kept this in order to be able to review what I have done, and to be able to critique my actions.  I think that it helps to keep me from being confused as to the results of my efforts, and I hope that people will find my writings and results instructive.  I did this earlier in the year, but let it lapse because I got involved with other things.

This is also a scrapbook of current events and market commentary that have interested me.

Everything in the Journal entries is what I thought at the time. I have sometimes gone back to correct grammar and spelling, but that is it.  Sometimes I was right, sometimes I was wrong, and sometimes I was irrelevant.

Investment gains and losses (percent and dollar) are approximate, adjusted for deposits and withdrawals.  The actual formula for percent change attributed to investment is

100*(Amt_at_end_of_month - Amt_at_beginning_of_month + Amt_withdrawn - Amt_deposited)/Amt_at_beginning_of_month

I do not list dividends from stocks or money market funds, but they are included in the total.

This journal should not be used in order to imitate my trades.  I only publish monthly, and if you try to make the same trades, you will be trading late.  In addition, I have used my judgment in following mechanical systems.  I give some instances of this on the Common Sense page, and also in the journal.  It is also important to look at a chart - particularly the PRISM setup - before buying, no matter how good your mechanical system is.  Maybe I have been right to depart from the mechanical picks, and maybe I have been wrong.  The portfolio shown on the monthly page is closed out as soon as any monthly distributions are credited to the account. This may take a couple of days

Remember, also, that the holdings of any mechanical system that has fixed holding periods will vary depending on when the system is started.  If you jump into the system in the middle, after the system has specified certain buys, and if you want to follow the holding periods, then you will probably not be in synch with the holdings of the system.  Two people following the same system but starting it at different times will have different results.  

All trades are input into a spreadsheet by hand.  There are therefore likely to be mistakes in the closed positions.  Since this is my IRA, I do not have to double check it for tax purposes.  Double checking all of the closed positions is more trouble than it is worth.  I often do not list interest or dividends as a separate transaction.  The monthly totals, however, have been reconciled with the account, as shown on the broker's web page.  As of August 2005, I have been downloading the current positions and the closed positions from Ameritrade, so the spreadsheets are as good as Ameritrade gives me.

I do not view anything in this journal as advice.  The only advice I want to give is that you should use technical tools and common sense to trade mutual funds and stocks.  In any case this site is free, and it may be worth exactly what you paid for it.  Or not.  I am not a registered investment advisor and cannot accept liability for any investment decisions you make. 

This journal is only intended to provide an example, and to entertain.  Build your own systems, and use your best judgment in following them.  Other alternatives are to subscribe to Fundbuster and let Harry Larson do the work for you, or to let Dave Serbin manage your money - Web site coming soon (7/12/2007).

IRA Monthly Summary

Year 2003

Year:  2003

September 2003:  Hanging in there in a tough market.

October 2003:  Surviving a signal whipsaw, some problems at Brown and Co., and a Fasttrack data error.  Not good.

November 2003:  It's all about Gold, for now at least.

Decenber 2003:  Gold market stumbles.  Small gain in spite of that.

Year of the Monkey

Colorful bunch: Monkeys whose fur was dyed red and yellow to celebrate the Year of the Monkey, sit on a tree at the Forest Safari Park in Shenyang, northeastern China. (AFP/Str )  So how is their trading record, I wonder.

Year:  2004 - Continued From Above

January 2004:  Delays at Brown in Withdrawing Funds.  Some underperforming funds.  Bad Market at the End of the Month.

March 2004:  A Great Verdict on Martha Stewart.  Just almost breaking even.

April 2004:  A Terrible Month.  All signals say to sell, but I wish I had sold earlier.   

May 2004:  Another bad month.

June 2004:  Trading stocks for the first time in several years.  Doing OK in a difficult market.

July 2004:  Sell Signal puts me in cash.  Small profit since June 1.  The market is going nowhere worthwhile now, but we may have a reversal next month.

August 2004:  Back with some long positions.  Small profit.  Still with some cash.

September 2004:  Difficult month - like most Septembers

October 2004:  Transferring to Ameritrade.  Merrill Lynch cost me money - even more than I thought.

November 2004:  It's the Election, Stupid!

December 2004:  End of the year.  Made some mistakes, and had some unfortunate happenings.

A display of fireworks is launched from the top floors of the Taipei 101 Building to celebrate the New Year, Saturday, Jan. 1, 2005, in Taipei, Taiwan. The world's tallest 508-meter-high (1,679-foot-high) skyscraper, which some liken to a giant bamboo shoot of glass and steel named after its number of floors, was inaugurated Friday. (AP Photo/Jerome Favre)

Year:  2005 - Continued From Above