December, 2003

From the Abercrombie and Fitch Website

While I think that their stuff is way overpriced, I have to give them some credit for the rather beautiful pics in the catalog.  Kudlow and Cramer were all outraged by them, and by the fact that some of their stores sported half naked men and women models inside.  To me, it is just a celebration of the human body, and that is cool.  My daughter, before she went away to college, had some A&F pics on her wall.  Good looking guys - she has high standards.

December 3, 2003

I got out of the EUROX and put the balance into UMPNX.  Gold appears to have closed solidly over $400/oz., and the productivity and other economic numbers look very good.  What we need is more good news from Iraq, of course.  We are certainly being more aggressive there, and that is a good thing.  

December 5, 2003

I lightened up on domestic funds.  The market is looking somewhat bad, and many reliable signals say to sell.  Of course, the most reliable say to buy.  This move is for safety.  If I do get back in, it will be in different funds.

December 11, 2003

Disaster yesterday in gold and gold funds.  On December 9, I noticed a divergence between the XAU and the price of gold.  Gold went up but the XAU went down.  Then yesterday, around the middle of the afternoon there was the same divergence.  On the one hand, the XAU should be correlated to gold; on the other hand if it is not, then there is reason to worry.  So I sold SCGDX, UNWPX, and USERX, and then went to the gym to work out.  When if got back, after the close, the XAU was down even more, and the price of gold was also significantly down.  Those funds each lost about 5%.  I only wish I had gotten out a day earlier.  Today, around 8:30 AM, gold is down more - around $404, from a recent high of $412.  

Most of the signals are on a sell, but I nevertheless am expecting a rebound of the domestic markets, and I still own KSCOX, PSPFX, UMPNX, and USCOX.  We will see which way the wind blows.

December 12, 2003

Stuff looked good yesterday, and I took a few nibbles.  Again today, and I am now fully invested.  There was a bounce in gold, but I will not go back into those funds for a while.  I am not following any formal mechanical system at this point; I am just buying funds with high MAM rankings, both in the domestic and foreign markets.  At some point some leaders may emerge, and I will focus more on them.

December 14, 2004

"We Got Him"

Video image of captured former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein (news - web sites) displayed at a news conference in Baghdad Sunday Dec. 14, 2003 in this image from television. The video shows a bearded Saddam being examined with his mouth open with a tongue depressor, apparently to get a DNA sample. Top U.S. administrator in Iraq (news - web sites) L. Paul Bremer confirmed the capture of former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein in a house near his hometown of Tikrit, eight months after the fall of Baghdad. (AP Photo/APTN)

Saddam was found hiding in a hole in the ground.  Very appropriate.  

Well, I don't know what the market will do tomorrow, but I am really glad not to be short in anything.

December 17, 2003

Hopes for a rally based on the capture, or on anything else for that matter, are dashed.  News continues to be good, however, and I hope that this current sell-off is just profit taking for the end of the year.

What with the collapse of the gold stocks and this sell-off, I am showing a loss this month so far.

December 19, 2003

Associated Press.  This is an artist's rendering of a night view of the proposed Freedom Tower, center, by architect Skidmore, Owings & Merrill LLP, as seen from the south at night, released by the Lower Manhattan Development Corp., in New York Friday Dec. 19, 2003. At left are the Empire State Building, and Statue of Liberty. (AP Photo/Lower Manhattan Development Corp.)  

December 22

With a terrorist alert over the weekend, it is becoming very unlikely that we will have much of a year-end rally.  I just hope that we do not have an actual attack.  If we were to foil an attack, and round up a bunch of malefactors, then I think everybody, including the markets, would rejoice.

Merry Christmas

Santa's Helpers Go Skinnydipping

Two members of Berlin's ice swimming club 'Berliner Seehunde' (Berlin seals) take a dip in the frozen water of the Oranke lake (Orankesee) December 25, 2003. Several members of the swimming club met on Thursday for their traditional weekly ice swimming meeting. REUTERS/Fabrizio Bensch

Happy New Year

Support Our Troops

U.S. Army soldier plays pool in one of Saddam Hussein (news - web sites)'s palaces, now converted into a recreation center, at a military base during a New Year's Eve party, in Tikrit, Iraq (news - web sites), Wednesday, Dec. 31, 2003. (AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia)

January 3, 2004

A New Year!  I think all of the distributions have come through, so here are the results.  Not terribly good.